Shock Poll Puts Harris Leading in Ruby Red Iowa, But Latest Battleground State Polls Show Elections Are Terrible

Republicans are trying to downplay the shocking Saturday poll result in Iowa that showed Vice President Harris leading President Trump in the state, which has favored the GOP by several points in the last two presidential elections. This comes as other polls show Ms Harris opening a small lead in critical battleground states just 48 hours before election day.

The Des Moines Register and pollster J. Ann Selzer’s Iowa poll found Ms. Harris leading Trump in the state by three points, 47 percent to 44 percent. It’s a notable result for Democrats, given that President Biden lost to Trump by 18 points in June in the same poll taken by Ms. Selzer, and Trump was ahead of Ms. Harris by four points in September.

Ms. Selzer is considered one of the best pollsters in the country and has the track record to prove it. In the last three presidential elections, pre-election polling correctly predicted the Iowa outcome by two points. Its polling of the state’s 2022, 2020 and 2014 Senate races came close to accurately predicting the winners of each of those contests.

“No President has done more for FARMERS and the Great State of Iowa than Donald J. Trump. Actually, it’s not even close! All the polls are VERY supportive of me, except the polls that are heavily favoring Democrats from someone who hates Trump and said it was totally wrong last time,” Trump said on Truth Social.

Shortly after the poll was released, Trump’s own polling team, led by Tony Fabrizio, released a memo detailing alleged problems with the Selzer poll. Calling it an “outlier” poll compared to other polls (like the Emerson College poll released on Saturday that showed Trump with a 10-point lead in Iowa), Mr. Fabrizio said Ms. Selzer had undercounted the sharp increase in Republican registration over the past four years and that Strong early voting turnout from GOP voters.

Once considered a major swing state, Iowa is one of the midwestern states that has moved sharply to the right under Trump. The state hasn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate since 2008, hasn’t elected a Democrat as governor since 2006, and all four of the state’s congressional seats are currently held by the GOP.

Iowa conservatives who had praised Ms. Selzer in the past turned against her after Ms. Harris’s positive result was announced on Saturday. “Don’t ever quote Des Moines Register polls to me again. @jaselzer flushed whatever was left of his credibility down the toilet. “Deliberate misconduct,” popular Iowa conservative radio host Steve Deace said on channel X. Bob Vander Plaats, president of the FAMILY Leader, considered the most influential Christian leader in the state, called the Selzer poll a “desirable narrative.” questionnaire.”

Beyond Ms. Selzer’s poll that pleased Democrats on Saturday, the New York Times and Siena College released their final polls of the 2024 race on Sunday, showing Ms. Harris with a slight lead in critical battleground states that will lead to a College victory.

The Times-Siena poll finds Ms. Harris leading Trump in Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Georgia; but all states are within the margin of error. He leads by three points in Nevada, two points in North Carolina and Wisconsin, and one point in Georgia. Pennsylvania and Michigan are tied, while Trump has a four-point lead in Arizona.

If the poll is accurate on Tuesday, Ms. Harris will carry the Electoral College, with only Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Georgia in her column, along with other states considered certain to be in her column.