Japan's ruling coalition loses majority to new Prime Minister Ishiba

The result was a serious blow to Prime Minister Ishiba, as the Liberal Democratic Party suffered its worst result in the last 15 years.

Japan’s ruling coalition lost its parliamentary majority in a significant defeat in Sunday’s national elections, raising uncertainty about the makeup of the next government and the outlook for the world’s fourth-largest economy.

With all but 20 of the 465 seats occupied, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has governed Japan for nearly all of its post-war history, and junior coalition partner Komeito took 209 seats in the lower house of parliament. Japanese public broadcaster NHK reported.

This was down from the 279 seats they previously held and marked the coalition’s worst election result since their brief loss of power in 2009.

“This choice was very difficult for us,” a somber-looking Ishiba told TV Tokyo.

Keiichi Ishii, the new leader of Komeito, the LDP’s long-term coalition partner, lost in his district last month.

The biggest winner of the night, the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), has soared from 98 seats to 143 as voters punished Ishiba’s party for the funding scandal and inflation.

The outcome could force parties into difficult power-sharing deals to come to power, potentially leading to political instability as the country faces economic challenges and a tense security situation in East Asia.

“This is not the end, but the beginning,” CDPJ leader Yoshihiko Noda said at a news conference, adding that his party would work with other opposition parties to target a change of government.

Prime Minister Ishiba said he would wait until final results, expected early Monday, before considering potential coalitions or other power-sharing agreements.

Last month, Ishiba defeated eight other candidates to head the conservative LDP, which has ruled Japan almost uninterrupted for seven decades despite frequent leadership changes.

He took office days later, replacing Fumio Kishida, who faced discontent over rising prices following the 2022 assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, a slush fund scandal and ties to the LDP’s Christian movement.

Ishiba called for early elections immediately after being elected, hoping to gain a public mandate for the premiership.

Japanese Prime Minister and Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) chairman Shigeru Ishiba (fourth from left) and other senior members of the party pose for a photo in front of the names of LDP candidates in the lower house elections seen by the executive board. party headquarters in Tokyo, Sunday, October 27, 2024 (Takashi Aoyama/Pool Photo via AP) — Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba (fourth from left) and senior members of the party stand in front of names of LDP candidates at the party’s headquarters in Tokyo, Japan (Takashi Aoyama/Pool Photo via AP Photo)

At Saturday’s rally, Ishiba promised that the LDP would “restart as a fair, just and sincere party.”

It wasn’t enough to convince voters.

The LDP has held an absolute majority since returning to power in 2012 after a brief opposition rule. He also briefly lost power in 1993, when a coalition of seven opposition parties formed a government that lasted less than a year.

Smaller parties such as the People’s Democratic Party (DPP) or the Japan Innovation Party may now be key to forming a government.

According to NHK, the DPP has 27 seats so far, while the Japan Innovation Party has 35 seats. However, both propose policies that contradict the LDP line.